Summary
➡ This article talks about the unpredictable nature of cryptocurrency, using Bitcoin and meme coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Enu as examples. It explains how these coins can rapidly increase in value, causing a fear of missing out (FOMO) among traders, but can also quickly lose value. The article also compares the 2017 cycle of Bitcoin and XRP, suggesting that XRP could soon experience a significant increase in value. Lastly, it mentions the upcoming trial between the SEC and Ripple, which could impact XRP’s value.
➡ This article talks about the current financial market trends, focusing on the stock market and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. It suggests that due to various factors like the Chinese Year of the Dragon, upcoming solar eclipse, and election years, the market might see a drop in April and May. The article also discusses potential issues with social media and communication systems, hinting at a possible new system being tested by global elites. Lastly, it predicts that Bitcoin’s value might decrease, but the market will remain generally positive until the end of 2025.
➡ The writer is closely watching cryptocurrencies like XRP, HBAR, Algorand, and XDC due to potential changes in the market. They clarify that they have not sold all their Bitcoin and Ethereum, but have reduced their risk by selling some. They believe the current bull run will last until late 2024 or early 2025. The writer also advises new investors to have an exit strategy and not to let greed guide their decisions.
Transcript
Welcome to another day in the Matrix. This is waters above. I hope you’re all doing amazing and the simulation has been treating you well, so we have a lot to get into today. This market is really heating up and in today’s video I want to focus specifically on XRP as it coils up for an imminent breakout. I have a couple charts to show you that point towards what could be taking place over the next couple months for XRP, and it’s not something to ignore, especially for those that are long term XRP holders.
And I’ll also be sharing my thoughts on what’s transpired over the past couple weeks for this crypto market and the way to navigate these times for those that are new to investing in cryptocurrency. And just a reminder, the new month has started on Patreon for March. If you’ve been waiting to join, I appreciate your support. You could sign up today by visiting patreon. com waters above to join our mastermind community membership and get instant access to my weekly Red Pill podcasts.
That’s my technical analysis podcast to wrap up the week and for me to review the altcoins that our community votes on. And this upcoming week will be a very special Red Pill podcast because I’ll be reviewing my portfolio, my investment thesis, and it is the what I’m investing in special, so you’re not going to want to miss that. And by becoming a Patreon supporter, you’ll also get access to our discord server for our community group chat.
So you could come hang out with the wolf pack. And you’ll also have full access to my entire livestream archive with over 100 live streams and over 250 behind the scenes uploads included in your membership. The Patreon link can be found in the description box of this video and in the pinned comment below. So if you’re new here, we do cryptocurrency technical analysis and combine it with Gamatria, numerology and astrology to understand these markets.
Feel free to subscribe and turn on the bell notification to stay updated on when new videos come out and make sure to give this video a like and share this channel with other conscious beings to help grow our community. And with that being said, let’s take the clear pill. So we have effectively got to 75 today greed on this fear and greed index. But yesterday we were at 90 so we made it to the promised land family.
Unbelievable how quickly we shifted into this extreme greed. A lot of it, of course, has to do with these meme coins and the nonsense in this market breaking out and having zero utility effectively, and that brings a lot of attention to the market, and then, therefore, you have a lot of greed. But let’s get this out of the way. I want to start off today’s video by revisiting a chart that I haven’t really reviewed in quite some time, but could definitely be significant for where we’re at right now in this cycle.
And this is the PI cycle top indicator for bitcoin. We’ll be reviewing past cycles and how bitcoin interacted with these two moving averages here on the screen. This green and yellow moving averages, the yellow one being the 111 day moving average and the green moving average being the 350 day moving average times two. So just a quick note, this green moving average is the 350 day Ma, and that would currently sit at about 34,000 for bitcoin.
But this PI cycle indicator multiplies that number by two, which would put it around $68,000 bitcoin. Today, as I film this video and it’ll be updated every 24 hours here on this website, look into bitcoin. com. So when analyzing bitcoin hitting this green moving average, here, we see on its first time testing this green moving average, it tends to get rejected off of it, and it typically returns back to this yellow moving average or the 111 day Ma.
We see this happen over here. In August 2012, we traded into this green moving average for the first time and then back tested this yellow moving average. Again happening in this cycle, trading into June July time frame, hitting the green moving average, getting rejected, and coming back to this yellow moving average. And again, happening in 2019. Same, but with a more dramatic pullback, of course, triggered by the c 19 crash, Black Swan event, which, by the way, we’re coming up on the fourth anniversary of that event.
That was on March 11, 2020. And this year, on March 11, it will be the day the Fed bailout program comes to an end. This was created in response to the failure of several retail banks last year, notably Silicon Valley bank, which collapsed on March 10, 2023. So this will be the end of that bailout program on the exact day of March 11. And this year, since March 11 lands on a Monday, the stock market, precious metals, and crypto will all be trading together simultaneously.
So prepare for volatility that day. That’ll be next Monday. And don’t be surprised if there’s an event that triggers a sharp sell off. It could be very quick, very fast, kind of a v shape recovery type deal. But that’s the stuff that we should be anticipating right now with how overheated this market is, specifically the crypto market. So the crypto market is overheated across the board. No one can deny that.
But getting back to this pie cycle chart, when we look closer into the 2012 iteration over here, we see that bitcoin traded above this green moving average. It extended above it, followed by the correction. The same thing happened slightly in 2016. Bitcoin extended slightly above this green moving average, which was short lived before the correction back testing the yellow moving average. And the same thing happened in 2019.
Bitcoin poking its head above this green moving average for a couple of daily candle closes, all three iterations, correcting back to the yellow moving average afterwards, and all three moving averages having a couple of daily closes above this green moving average first. And the significance of this was because it was the first time bitcoin tested this moving average after these moving averages crossed, which marked the cycle top in all iterations, followed by a rejection back to this yellow moving average, which was effectively one of the best final buying opportunities in that deep of the cycle.
Even with this double blow off top cycle, back in 2013, this happened. You could see this red dotted line marked the top, and then we had this cross down here. We had trading into this green moving average, getting slightly above it, then retesting the yellow moving average before going on to the second blow off top. What’s interesting about the cycle that we’ve just recovered from is that we had a double top, and now we’re effectively in this area that some could consider a triple top.
But I’m not going to call it that just yet. I think that there’s a lot more time in this cycle. But with what we have now, with this narrative, with the etfs and everything going on, it does very much feel like we’re about to have a rug pull, and we’ll be getting into that in a moment. But just wanted to say we have covered all of these past iterations, even this very specific iteration of this double blow off top situation of coming into the green moving average and then rejected off of it back testing the yellow moving average, and well, over the past 48 hours, bitcoin has officially broke slightly above this green moving average for the first time since our prior cycle top.
So I’m going to be zooming in on this. So you can see we had one daily close above it, and so far, pretty sharp rejection. I think bitcoin had about a 7% red daily close yesterday after barely getting an all time high. And we’ll cover that in a moment. But we want to look at where this yellow moving average is right now. This 111 day moving average, it sits slightly below forty five k bitcoin, which is right around the Macro 702 fib retracement, and where bitcoin traded for a little over two months over here before its recent breakout.
So this was during the end of last year, about December 2023, into the beginning of February 2024, when we effectively broke out. So I want us to keep this in mind, especially with the setup we have right now for bitcoin trading within our prior cycle all time high. And the liquidations lately have been incredible for anyone who pays attention to what’s gone on over the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin technically traded into a new all time high for less than 1 minute. It was probably around 45 seconds, and then it instantly corrected almost 15% in the next four hour candle. But that first hour after the rejection, it caused almost $300 million worth of liquidations. I would assume by now, with the way that it’s got bought back up, we’re definitely over 500 million in liquidations in under a day.
So clearly, pushing bitcoin to this new all time high, slightly above all time highs, was part of the ongoing short squeeze and having a sell wall there. It was to liquidate traders. Basically, people were setting long slightly above all time high in anticipation for breaking into price discovery, which is normal on some assets. But you got to remember, we’re here in crypto. It’s the wild, wild west. And the fact that now bitcoin has traded back up within 4% or so of the highs.
This is the market maker playing cat and mouse with retail and leverage traders. We saw Dogecoin get to 95 RSI on the daily, and then it corrected almost 40%. This is really unbelievable. The market maker is inducing this fomo, and the fact the meme coins are doing what they’re doing right now is a sign, because in the last cycle, we saw the meme coins take off at the end of the bull run.
I’ll actually touch on that really quickly. Again, for those that are new here. I remember back in the last cycle when Shiba Enu was the talk of the town in May 2021. So if everyone remembers back during this pump over here, let me remove all this noise and just keep it nice and simple for you guys. During this pump over here, bitcoin and the majority of the all coin market was correcting heavy big correction, but we saw this big move to the upside that ended on May twelveth for Shiba Enu, there was this spike up in price within similar levels to where we’re trading at now.
You see this red doted line? Well, we’re right there. Today. If I zoom out, you’ll see the way that we just moved up recently. Kind of interesting, right off of the same sort of level, this type of breakout into the same prices. What’s important about this move is it followed up with an 80% pullback, effectively 84% in just a month. This took about 32, 33 days to lose 80%, and then it followed with about four months of sideways with very low volume before the next breakout.
So here you had your fomo, and then here you had your panic selling on the first dump. And then all throughout here, you just had what would be considered smarter players in the game. Accumulating, getting ready for essentially one more distributionary event, one more impulse. Well, Sheb is at, I believe, 98 RSI as of yesterday. It might have even got a little bit higher. Yeah, it was trading it to 96 RSI for two straight days.
And on the weekly chart, it’s at 92 RSI. This is the same exact territory where the market maker knows retail can help themselves, and they’re going to FOMo in. I’m not saying that Sheb is going to have an 80% pullback right now, but I am warning to be careful of jumping into the market. That’s an extreme greed. And has a chart this oversold, especially on a project like this, that can only really rely on being a cultural moment.
It has no use case. So let’s get into the main theme of today’s video, which is the chart that I want to share comparing the 2017 cycle for bitcoin and XRP. And I think you guys are going to love this, because I’ve talked about this in prior videos, how I feel an isolated event is coming soon for specifically XRP, and it’s this chart right here. So we have bitcoin and XRP between 2014 and 2018.
This red line across the screen was the cycle all time highs back at the end of 2013 into the beginning of 2014. You see the same for XRP at the bottom, but notice the difference. This was March, April of 2017, right there at the beginning of March, actually. And bitcoin was breaking all time highs in early March, essentially right where we’re at right now. And bitcoin officially broke the all time high on March 2, while XRP was still down 90% from its all time high.
Then from March 2, 2017, over the next 30 days, XRP did a ten x, it went up 1000%. Note. During the same time frame, bitcoin was barely breaking above all time highs. It got about 5% above all time highs. And I want you to note of that in case we have one more impulse coming in the next four to seven days. For bitcoin, we did get about 5% above all time highs, but then surrounding this move, we had 230% to 35% corrections.
So during this time, bitcoin corrected 30% while XRP went up 1000%. I just want you to consider that, all right? This correction that happened on bitcoin, it lasted from about March 7 until March 25. And during that time frame of three weeks, while bitcoin corrected 30% after retesting all time highs, and even technically breaking all time highs, XRP was up 120%. Actually, in that same time frame. Again, we’re kind of noting this whole first impulse for XRP is what I was mentioning earlier, but just we’re talking about the specific days right here.
It was a full 100% breakout and retesting all time highs from a little over three years prior, that’s mind blowing because what took bitcoin over 500 days to do, which was technically around the 00:26 macro fib up to the all time high, took bitcoin 500 days. It only took XRP a single month. So talk about FomO, and excuse me before if I confuse some people with the idea of the ten X versus the 100%.
I mean, all in all, we’re talking about about two month, three month time frame. And I just wanted to show you kind of what was going on in this initial phase while bitcoin was doing what it is. As I make this video versus what came next for XRP, that’s really what matters most. The percentages and everything aren’t nearly as important because again, we’re talking about different cycles, different narratives, completely different market.
So percentages aren’t nearly as important as the catch up to all time high, which we know XRP’s current all time high sits at $3. So that would be like XRP having a three week breakout going back to $3 from where it’s trading at now. And I find that to be very fascinating how it took until bitcoin trading around all time highs for XRP to do that. We have data to consider.
So when XRP pumps, it’s dramatic and it’s seemingly out of nowhere. It just wakes up and starts to run. And I think that’s important that we pay attention to that. So getting back to the way bitcoin was behaving during this time frame, it took bitcoin until the end of April, about April 27 of 2017, to continue into price discovery. And once bitcoin continued up into the month of May, I’m going to show you really quickly in these charts.
Once it continued up into the month of May, XRP followed into price discovery as well, topping right below the macro, 1. 6 118 fib. So the golden ratio, and this is analyzing it on a logarithmic scale with the log setting turned on the fibs, you can see it perfectly topped out there at the 1. 6 118. That’s an important thing to note. Then we had a correction. But step by step, this breakout lasted a little under 80 days.
It was only eleven weeks, and you could see how parabolic it was then. XRP traded sideways for about 200 days into the end of the year. Then it broke out in the same fashion in a straight line to its current all time high, which still stands to this day. So it had a double impulse. All of this was triggered by bitcoin trading around all time highs in the month of March.
That is crucial. And what’s important to note about XRP, of course, is the fact that we’re coming up on the grand trial of the SEC versus ripple lawsuit. Some of you are probably new to all of this, maybe you’re brand new to crypto, but this case is supposedly coming to an end very soon. We have this grand trial of the SEC versus ripple, which was updated as of a couple of days ago with extensions on the key dates.
The deadline for Ripple to file its opposition brief extended to April 22 and pushing the deadline for the SEC to file its reply brief by March or by May 6. And that data could be found right here. Coincidentally, this is right around the bitcoin having, which the bitcoin having is predicted to be on April 19. We’re getting very, very close to that, as today is March 6. Also, another thing about today’s date numerology, it’s three, six six.
It’s the 66th day of the year, and we’re 33 days away from April eigth. 33 half, 66. I find that to be very fascinating. Date numerology, and I believe the stock market is about to open up in a little bit. So we’re going to have to see how these traditional markets impact the volatility of what we’re getting here in bitcoin and cryptocurrency since the liquidations that happened last night with the slight new all time high in the market.
This next key date for ripple will be March 22. All right. And that’s pretty fascinating because March 22 is the three two two date. That’s the skull and bones number 322. And it’ll be just a couple of days before this month’s lunar eclipse. On March 25, it’ll be the start of eclipse season. And I’ve shown several times how the year of the dragon, which is the chinese year that we’re in today, the SP 500, tends to top out by late March or early April, considering we have the solar eclipse on April eigth.
And in most iterations of the year of the dragon analysis for the SP, we top out during this time frame. And we also have the data for the Dow Jones showing us that in election years we tend to sell off in April and May, which aligns perfectly with what I just mentioned. So you see these red bars are election years, and that’s what we’re in right now. March, seemingly pretty solid, which is normal but very volatile, and also a month of black swans, which we’ll get to in a moment.
But we see here in April and May a correction, a little bit of a pause, and that’s healthy. It’s very needed, especially with this market that we have right now. Also, the next Federal Reserve FOMC meeting will be on March 20. This could very well be the time frame for this entire market to cool off for a little, to build some structure before heading up further into the rest of the year, into Q four.
And I personally feel this entire market can stay generally bullish all the way until the end of Q one, 2025. The Fed is likely to pivot at least after the elections, if they don’t do it sooner. I assume they’re just holding off right now because of the elections. So, of course, we can stay up here in La La Land for an uncomfortable amount of time. It’s obvious we’re in a bubble.
And with the demand these institutions have for bitcoin, with such little supply available on the open market, and even with OTC desks saying they’ve effectively run out of bitcoin, well, the only way for these institutions to acquire more bitcoin, especially after the having, would be to dump the market. And since March is the month of black swans, and we’re coming up on this Fed bank bailout program ending next Monday on March 11, and we know that many high profile billionaires have been selling last month in February, an epic cash out.
It’s got to make you think, what are they preparing for? Why has there been so many issues with communications lately in social media? Severe blackouts, everything that went down on Facebook and Instagram yesterday, even TikTok and WhatsApp had issues a couple weeks ago at T. Verizon and T Mobile had issues with their cell phone provider all throughout the United States in several areas, which is very od. The global elite are clearly testing a new system.
Of course, whatever happens next is just speculation, but what’s already happening in real life over the past couple months seems like predictive programming for a false flag. Let me know in the comments section below what you think might happen. Of course, it’s all speculation. We’re not trying to push fear here, but we’re just being honest about what seems to be the writing on the wall. So let’s recap today’s video, bitcoin, or let’s wrap up today’s video.
Excuse me. Bitcoin is testing effectively within cycle highs during the month of March, right around our third solar eclipse. I want to see if I could bring this data up for you all. All right, so we have here the third solar eclipse of our cycle. And I want to go back to the daily chart for bitcoin, remove all this noise and show you what’s up for the 2017 cycle.
So we have here third solar eclipse and bitcoin testing all time highs, even breaking above all time highs. And that’s exactly what’s happening today. So you could see it here on this into the third solar eclipse. And we have our third solar eclipse coming up in 33 days. Perfect number. We’re right around that territory. So it is very weird for bitcoin to be breaking all time highs and going into price discovery during a pre having market.
But I guess there’s a first for everything, right? Ultimately, my stance on this is bitcoin is overheated. It is not an opportunity anymore. It would have to go into multiple, multiple six figures for me to even be interested in buying a bitcoin this high. But you do you, right. I do think that there has to be some sort of rug pull, though, for these institutions to get the drugs that they need if they have this demand, and they’re going to keep up with it, as mentioned earlier.
So just wanted to point out that we have this March time frame and a couple of 30% corrections around this third solar eclipse. Also kind of around the having. Right after the having. We even had about a 40% correction, by the way. During this cycle, bitcoin had several 30% to 40% corrections which held on the weekly 21 exponential moving average. So I want to just pull that up for you guys real quick and show you what’s going on with that particular exponential moving average.
Let me turn off this noise. You can see this orange moving average is what I just mentioned. It’s at 45,200 as we filmed today’s video that’s perfectly in alignment with the 111 day moving average right over here that we mentioned during this pie cycle. Top indicator analysis. One thing to note is there technically is a CME gap sitting at about forty k. And I’m not like the biggest gap proponent or pusher.
I just do have to point the fact out that there is one at 40k. There’s also a noticeable one here at 20k that would be very difficult for me to believe is happening at this time unless we have a crazy black swan event, but the one at believable, especially where it sits with the overall chart and around the timing. This all happened because this was the approval of the ETF.
This was the bear trap for the ETF. And then we can see there is a little gap showing right there. I know it’s insignificant. A lot of people don’t believe in this stuff. They might believe that because we’ve already had the approval and so much bullishness and this big narrative around the ETF that this type of data doesn’t matter anymore. But anyone who knows how the CME chart works, an overwhelming majority of these gaps eventually get filled.
When do they get filled? It all just depends. So if we were to have that type of move to the downside, that would be an almost 45% correction, which is a pretty sizable correction and becoming seemingly less and less plausible at this time. But of course, be open minded to anything in these markets. It’s crypto, after all. And if these institutions really want to get as much bitcoin as possible, flushing this market to would do the trick.
So during the having of July 2016, bitcoin actually did have a 40% correction. Let’s quickly check in on that. I brought it up a little bit ago, but just to show you, we have here this having, and then after the having, we got this correction. So we peaked 22 days or three weeks before the having. And the lows of that correction were 24 days after that having kind of this as above, so below effect.
Also, in all prior cycles, it was normal to see about two to three months after the having, just generally sideways a little bit more boring. As mentioned, a cool off period is needed. We have the April and may data for the traditional markets on election years showing us this type of behavior, even kind of a flat June, it aligns very nicely. But between now and then, bitcoin could definitely head higher.
As mentioned with the 2017 cycle when we extended about 5% above all time highs before stalling out a little bit and having a correction. If we were to put that into today’s numbers, that would be around a $72,000 bitcoin and something to bring up. We have March twelveth coming up next Tuesday, 72nd day of the year. We also have bitcoin equaling 72 in Gamatria. Just some esoteric notes to keep in mind.
Also Dogecoin equaling 72 in the same cipher, and that’s definitely a project that I’m looking out for this year to have an incredible run. So we’re in the year of the dragon, and gold is an important theme for the dragon year. Dogecoin’s logo is gold. Same with bitcoin. Anything red, orange, gold or yellow should be the symbolism to look out for fire symbolism, especially gold at this time, is at all time highs right now.
And since we’re in the year of the x, x being the 24th letter in the Alphabet, and we’re in the year of 2024, in the hebrew year of 5784 adds up to 24. In numerology, I see gold hitting $2,400 an ounce during this year of the dragon. So between now and February 2025, Q 120 25 is big, and I’ll touch more on that in future videos. And since x I mentioned 24th letter in the Alphabet is the symbol of XRP, I feel an isolated breakout is coming very soon for XRP and it will be shocking.
I showed you the data before, how bitcoin was behaving around the same time of the year back in 2017, and what came next for XRP. And with these dates for the finality of the trial that I mentioned, even if it gets extended further into May, I suspect there will be speculation of how this case will end and the whales can easily rotate stables and these meme coin profits into the ISO 222 compliant projects, which has yet to happen.
So this is why I’m paying attention to XRP at this time, as well as HBAR, Algorand and XDC. And just an update since my last projects that I put out for those that believe I sold all my bitcoin and Ethereum. That was never said. You need to understand what the term derisking means. Derisking means removing risk. Risk is your hard earned money. It’s the capital you entered the market with it’s not liquidating your entire position.
I’ve been very clear for over a year and a half now that I do not see the end of this bull run until the end of 2024 into Q one 2025. That is not news. That is old news. I stated that I would never sell all of my bitcoin, ethereum or xrp as those are my core long term holds in my portfolio and everything else is just venture capital.
It’s stuff I play with. So the bitcoin I derisked at 47 and 54 was not selling my entire position. It was to reduce my exposure to a play that I know won’t get me nearly as much gains as my altcoin plays during this phase in the cycle. It was a strategy to increase the percentage of my altcoin positions and decrease my bitcoin position. As of right now, bitcoin still sits at 30% of my entire portfolio, and since I’ve accumulated more than 60% of my bitcoin ever purchased below $10,000 back in 2020 during that cycle, then you need to realize what I did.
I’ve been in house money on bitcoin since the summer of 2021. Few realize this, but I understand that people are new to my work and that’s completely fine. And I hope you’re getting education out of what I’m sharing with you right now. Few realize all of what I’ve just said, but it’s something I’ve spoken about all during the bear market and for anyone in my patreon that is part of our mastermind community membership.
You can see my recent entries on bitcoin were at 21 626 800. Just my new positions from earlier in this current cycle average out to below twenty four k bitcoin somewhere around like 23 700 id risked I did not liquidate and some words of wisdom for those out there who are new to this game and perhaps did not have a successful cycle in 2021 if that’s the case for you.
The number one issue for most investors that happened back in 2021, they did not derisk. They got greedy. They had no exit strategy. So they held through all the greed and then panic sold at a loss on most of the positions when the market reversed. That’s how last cycle went for many. That’s not how it went for me. And I have proof on the channel that exposes all of that.
Because I had an exit strategy in place, I didn’t get greedy. I stayed conservative on 70% of my portfolio and I had plenty of ten x’s in my venture capital bag to balance things out, and I anticipate it’s going to go the same way this cycle. This isn’t a flex or to prove myself, it’s to help those who are new to this game and have no idea how to strategize during this roller coaster ride of a crypto bull run.
And my strategy has been working incredible for me and that’s all that matters. But I can sense the greed has been at a peak over the last couple of weeks here in Cryptoland and all I could say is play the game. Don’t let the game play you, and don’t concern yourself with how others are playing their game unless you actually want to grow and understand the skill, the skill that they have.
It’s those who hate and troll who have to deal with the lack for the rest of their lives. That’s their mind state that they’re in. They’re suffering. They have a lot of fear that they project. That doesn’t need to be your achilles heel too. What we’re doing here in this community is rare. What we stand for is collaboration and expansion. Consciously and I’m grateful to be a part of your journey.
So as mentioned in the intro, I’ll be filming a very special red Pill podcast over@patreon. com waters above for our mastermind community membership. This new Red Pill podcast will be dedicated to what I’m personally investing in and reviewing my portfolio and investment thesis thoroughly with our community, and that will be released this upcoming Sunday. And in the meantime, if you join today, you will immediately have access to all 150 past red Pill podcasts and over 100 live streams in my live stream archive, as well as access to our discord server for our community group chat.
Come hang out with us, ask questions, get to know more like minded people. So I’m looking forward to getting to know you more, and I appreciate all of your support and wishing you all an incredible rest of your day in the matrix. Much love. .
